论文总字数：21163字

摘 要

随着我国国民经济的增长，小汽车保有量不断增加，城市道路不再满足当前需求，各城市都在进行城市道路的调整或交通基础设施的建设。在施工、改建扩建期间，势必会造成道路通行能力的削减，从而导致道路网服务水平的减低。因此研究预测施工期交通需求，把握好施工期交通需求关系和规模，可为后续施工期交通提供一定数据。

交通需求预测是交通规划的基础，本文先描述了国内外对道路需求预测的研究，分析了施工期间的交通特性，再接着，总结了预测中常出现的方法，即以最常见的四阶段法为基础，利用OD反推方法，构建施工期的需求预测模型。最后，以浦泗路为例，基于道路交通数据，利用Transcad软件进行OD反推，得到居民出行产生与吸引，运用模型对其施工期间的交通需求进行预测，并且制定了建设期间的分流、疏解方案。

关键词：城市道路；交通需求预测；施工期运行组织；交通特性；浦泗路施工

Forecast and Analysis of Traffic Demand during Urban Road Construction: A Case Study of Pusi Road

Abstarct

With reforms and openness, the national economy has developed at a high speed and the urbanization process has been accelerating，urban roads no longer meet the current needs.，all cities are stepping up construction of urban transportation infrastructure and road maintenance work. During the period of road construction, reconstruction and expansion, it is bound to cause the reduction of road traffic capacity, thus leading to the reduction of road network service level . Therefore, studying and forecasting the traffic demand during the construction period and grasping the relationship and scale of traffic demand during the construction period can provide certain data for the traffic during the subsequent construction period .

Traffic demand forecast is the basis of traffic planning. Firstly, this paper introduces the research on traffic demand forecast at home and abroad, analyzes the traffic operation characteristics during road construction and the influence of construction on road traffic capacity. Secondly, it summarizes the commonly used methods of traffic demand forecast. Based on the traditional four-stage traffic method and using OD backstepping principle, it constructs a demand forecast model during construction. Finally, taking Pusi Road as an example, based on road traffic data, OD inversion is carried out using Transcad software to obtain the generation and attraction of residents' travel. The model is used to predict the traffic demand during the construction period, and the diversion and relief scheme during the construction period is formulated.

Key words: city road, traffic demand forecast, operation organization during construction period, traffic characteristics, Pusi Road Construction。

目录

第一章绪论 1

1.1研究的目的与意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状 1

1.2.1国外研究现状 1

1.2.2国内研究现状 1

1.2.3小结 2

1.3主要研究内容 2

1.4技术路线 2

第二章城市道路施工期运行交通特性分析 4

2.1城市道路施工组织概况 4

2.2施工期道路设施和运行特性 4

2.2.1施工期道路设施 4

2.2.2 施工期运行特性 4

第三章基于预测模型的施工期交通需求预测分析 6

3.1交通需求预测理论 6

3.1.1四阶段法介绍 6

3.1.2基于“ OD反推”城市交通需求预测 6

3.2交通预测关键影响因素分析 7

3.3基于TransCAD软件的预测模型研究 8

3.3.1TransCAD软件简介 8

3.3.2TransCAD软件运用 8

第四章施工期交通运行及组织研究 11

4.1交通组织原则 11

4.2交通组织内容 11

4.3交通组织策略 12

第五章浦泗路案例分析 13

5.1项目背景 13

5.2现状调查 13

5.3交通需求分析 15

5.3.1需求预测方法 15

5.3.2交通需求预测 16

5.3.3交通分配及需求预测结果 20

5.4浦泗路施工期交通组织策略 21

5.4.1建设范围 21

5.4.2 交通分流组织 22

5.4.3 施工车辆组织 23

第六章结论与展望 24

6.1研究结论 24

6.2论文研究展望 24

致谢 25

参考文献 26

第一章绪论

1.1研究的目的与意义

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