国际油价波动对我国航运类股票投资价值影响分析毕业论文
2021-04-14 05:04
摘 要
原油作为现代工业生产最基础的能源与化工原料，在经济生活和社会运行中发挥着举足轻重的作用。随着经济的快速发展，国对原油的对外依存度也在逐年提高，2013年，国己经成为世界第一大原油进口消费国。其价格波动一直都是经济社会各方面所关注的重要话题。这其中，航运类企业开展生产活动，对原油的消耗较大，原油价格的变动趋势对于航运企业的运营成本来说意义非凡。
随着原油金融化程度的增强，其在资本市场的作用也越来越受到人的关注。股票市场不但是资本市场的重要组成部分，更是一国实体经济发展的“晴雨表”。国股票市场的市场化程度和开放程度越来越深，其市场有效性以及和国际市场的联动性也得到了很大的提高，国际原油价格的波动对国航运股票市场产生了一定的冲击。进而影响航运企业运营健康和股票市场价值，从而影响航运类股票投资价值。
本文将借鉴国内外已有相关研究内容，以 2015-2017 年这三年间相关统计数据，研究国际原油价格波动对国航运类股票投资价值影响，并用有关的数学模型对相关股票的投资价值进行分析和评估，从而得出国际油价的波动对航运类股票价值影响的结论。该研究无论是从国家能源战略安全，还是国股票市场建设，以及参与股票投资的投资者资产配置和风险防范角度，都有一定的理论价值和现实意义。
关键词：国际油价，航运，股票，投资价值
ABSTRACT
Crude oil, as the most basic energy and chemical raw material in modern industrial production, plays a decisive role in our economic life and social operation. With the rapid development of the economy, China's foreign dependence on crude oil has also been increasing year by year. In 2013, China has become the world's largest crude oil importing country. Its price fluctuation has always been an important topic of concern in all sectors of the economy and society. Among them, the shipping enterprises carry out production activities, and the consumption of crude oil is great. The trend of the change of the price of crude oil is of great significance to the operation cost of the shipping enterprises.
At the same time, with the enhancement of the degree of crude oil finance, its role in the capital market has attracted more and more attention. The stock market is not only an important part of the capital market, but also a barometer of the development of a country's real economy. The market degree and opening degree of the stock market in China is more and more deep, its market efficiency and the linkage with the international market have also been greatly improved. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has caused a certain impact on the shipping and stock market in China. It will affect the operation health and stock market value of shipping companies, thus affecting the investment value of shipping stocks.
China's research on the international crude oil fluctuation to the stock market is from the end of the twentieth Century, the financial market is unrest, the development of our shipping enterprises is tortuous, and the shipping market is low in 2008. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the whole of China's stock market in the macro economic layer, and to analyze the stock investment value of individual shipping enterprises from the fuzzy mathematics and the comprehensive evaluation methods of various investment fields.
This paper will draw on the relevant research contents at home and abroad, and study the impact of the fluctuation of international crude oil price on the investment value of China's shipping stocks on the basis of the relevant statistical data of the past 2015-2017 years in the past three years. Whether it is from the national energy strategy security, or the construction of China's stock market, as well as the investment of investors in the allocation of assets and risk prevention, all have a certain value and significance.
Key words: international oil price ,shipping, stock , investment value
第一绪论 ............................................................................................................................................................................ |
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第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................................................................... | 1 | |||||
1.1研究背景................................................................................................................................................................. | 1 | |||||
1.2 研究的目的及意义 .................................................................................................................................................. | 1 | |||||
1.3 国内外的研究现状分析 ......................................................................................................................................... | 2 | |||||
1.4 研究内容、方法及技术路线 ............................................................................................................................... | 3 | |||||
1.4.1 研究内容 ....................................................................................................................................................... | 3 | |||||
1.4.2 研究方法 ....................................................................................................................................................... | 4 | |||||
1.4.3 技术路线 ....................................................................................................................................................... | 5 | |||||
第二章 国际油价近三年的走势分析 .................................................................................................................................. | 6 | |||||
2.1 国际油价近三年的走势图 ................................................................................................................................... | 6 | |||||
2.2 | 国际油价近三年的走势分析 ...................................................................................................................................... | 7 | ||||
2.3 | 国际油价近三年波动的原因分析 ............................................................................................................................. | 7 | ||||
2.3.1 从原油的稀缺性分析国际油价波动 ....................................................................................................... | 7 | |||||
2.3.2 以国际大事件为出发点分析国际油价波动 ......................................................................................... | 7 | |||||
2.3.3 | 经济因素 ........................................................................................................................................................ | 9 | ||||
2.3.4 | 地缘政治与战争 ........................................................................................................................................ | 10 | ||||
2.3.5 | 库存因素 ...................................................................................................................................................... | 10 | ||||
2.3.6 | 投机因素 ...................................................................................................................................................... | 11 | ||||
2.3.7 | 技术创新因素 ............................................................................................................................................. | 11 | ||||
2.4 | 本章小结 .................................................................................................................................................................... | 11 | ||||
第三章 我国股市航运类股票近三年的走势分析 ......................................................................................................... | 12 | |||||
3.1 | 中远海发（601866）2015-2017 年股票走势分析 ..................................................................................... | 12 | ||||
3.1.1 中远海发（601866）2015-2017 年股票走势图 .......................................................................... | 12 | |||||
3.1..2中远海发（601866）2015-2017 年股票走势分析 ..................................................................... | 13 | |||||
3.1.3 中远海发 2015-2017 年业绩分析 ...................................................................................................... | 14 | |||||
3.2 | 招商轮船（601872）2015-2017 年股票走势分析 ...................................................................................... | 15 | ||||
3.2.1 招商轮船（601872）2015-2017 年股票走图 ............................................................................... | 15 | |||||
3.2.2 招商轮船（601872）2015-2017 年股票走势分析 ...................................................................... | 16 | |||||
3.2.3 招商轮船 2015-2017 年业绩分析.......................................................................................................... | 17 | |||||
3.3 | 渤海轮渡（603167）2015-2017 年股票走势分析 ................................................................................... | 18 | ||||
3.3.1 渤海轮渡（603167）2015-2017 年股票走图 .......................................................................... | 18 | |||||
3.3.2 渤海轮渡（603167）2015-2017 年股票走势分析 .................................................................. | 19 | |||||
3.3.3 渤海轮渡 2015-2017 年业绩分析....................................................................................................... | 20 | |||||
3.4 | 应用回归分析确定油价对股价影响 ......................................................................................................................... | 21 | ||||
3.4.1 | 运用回归分析来确定油价波对中远海发股价的影响 ................................................................... | 22 | ||||
3.4.2 | 运用回归分析来确定油价波对招商轮船股价的影响...................................................................... | 24 | ||||
3.4.3 | 运用回归分析来确定油价波对渤海轮渡股价的影响..................................................................... | 26 | ||||
第四章 我国股市航运类股票近三年的投资价值分析 ............................................................................................... | 28 | |||||
4.1 | 股票投资价值分析概念的界定 .......................................................................................................................... | 28 | ||||
4.2 | 股票投资分析的发展回顾 ................................................................................................................................... | 28 | ||||
4.2.1 | 格雷厄姆的基本投资分析理论 ............................................................................................................. | 28 | ||||
4.2.2 | 凯恩斯的空中楼阁理论............................................................................................................ | 29 | ||||
4.2.3 | 随机漫步理论.............................................................................................................................. | 29 | ||||
4.2.4 | 江恩理论.................................................................................................................................... | 30 | ||||
4.3 我国股票市场的特点 30
4.3.1 我国股市正处于调整阶段 30
4.3.2 供不应求 30
4.3.3 股市交投过旺 31
4.3.4 股市尚待规范 31
4.4 我国股市航运类股票近三年的投资价值分析 32
